Is Cabo Slowing Down? The Real Picture on Cabo's Real Estate Market and Infrastructure

What the 2025–2026 Sales Data Actually Shows

Year over year, 2026 over 2025 has shown a 14 percent decrease in real estate transactions. That's real, and I'm not going to sugarcoat it. It is a slower market right now on a micro scale.

A lot of that hesitation comes from noise — cartel headlines, general negativity about Mexico, infrastructure frustrations like traffic and water. People are getting spooked by stories that don't reflect what's actually happening on the ground here in Los Cabos.

The Infrastructure Investment That Changes the Long-Term Story

Here's what's actually going on at the macro level. The San José del Cabo furniture underpass has been completed and is ready to go for high season 2026. That's a real quality-of-life improvement for anyone living or driving through the corridor.

The second desalination plant in Cabo San Lucas is projected to come online in early 2027. They invested 1.8 billion pesos — with a B — and it's approximately 73 percent complete. When finished, it will produce 250 liters per second of fresh water. That single project addresses one of the biggest long-term concerns people have about Cabo's growth capacity.

Los Cabos International Airport is also seeing major upgrades to Terminal 2, the international side. More convenience, more flights — that matters for property values and rental demand more than most people realize.

The Luxury Pipeline Is Still Moving

The high-end development pipeline hasn't stopped. Ernie Els's first golf course design in Mexico, Oleada Golf Links, is an 18-hole, par-72 championship links-style course sitting on the Pacific coast about 15 minutes west of downtown Cabo San Lucas, with a 7,336-yard layout built across natural dunes along a one-mile stretch of beach.

When you see luxury flags committing capital at this scale, that's a signal. These brands do not move into markets they believe are declining. They're betting on the next 15 to 20 years of Cabo, and so am I.

What 15-Year Population Growth Looks Like for Cabo

The reality is simple: a lot of people want to live in Cabo. The thing holding back population growth isn't lack of interest — it's the perception that Mexico is dangerous and the infrastructure isn't ready. Both of those concerns are being actively addressed with billions of dollars in investment.

We're already seeing new middle and lower-end communities being built out on Highway 19 heading toward Todos Santos. Higher-end communities are expanding too. Over the next 15 years, I expect Cabo San Lucas to see meaningful, sustained population growth across income levels.

If You're Looking at Pre-Construction, Ask These Five Questions

Slower markets are actually a good window for pre-construction opportunities — but you have to vet the developer carefully. Here are the five things I look at before recommending any pre-construction project to a client:

First, have they broken ground? Second, is power and water already planned and accounted for? Third, have they started the condo regime — that process has to be completed before the project finishes, so timing matters. Fourth, what is a realistic and specific completion timeline? And fifth, has this developer successfully completed other projects? Track record is everything in a pre-construction buy.

These aren't optional questions. In a market like this, with some developers more stretched than others, doing this homework is how you protect yourself.